Wednesday, May 8, 2013

Division of electoral districts and the "Great Blackout"

DAP finally got their pillar state of Penang, along with PAS with kelantan as confirmed during GE13, while as expected, BN still has the majority. Selangor is divided among PKR,PAS and DAP.

Most of the urban side has fallen to PR, especially to the DAP. Unfortunately due to the high density of urban residents, the division of the polling area tend to be smaller around urban areas and larger around rural areas. This has caused great discontent among the voters especially when it was apparent that the overall votes for PR is higher than that for BN. While this has shown that BN has greatly lost the majority support of Malaysians, nevertheless, BN still retains the support of rural communities.

Many lament this to be the end of democracy in Malaysia, but the truth is, this is simply the system of democracy at work. Yes, there is a fundamental flaw around the division of polling areas, but that is the system. People not only choose the party they want to represent them, but also the person for their area. You may support that side of the flag, but it does not mean that you may like that person they sent to represent your area. If one only votes for the party, but not the person in question, this is simply a blinded fervour for the party and not in the best interests of the area and the country.

And thus division of polling area is needed. While it has been generally accepted elsewhere in the world that the system works this way,  Malaysian voters seem newly aware that this system is in place. Currently there is a great upset among voters, and PR leaders have been using this to their advantage, that this system is unfair. There is also the "Great blackout" incident that has incredulously increased the votes for BN in Bentong and some other areas after a blackout. However, this is not impossible to happen as Lim Kit Siang at Gelang Patah managed to outrun Abdul Ghani within half an hour but the votes just "happened" to increase after the blackout, prompting many to suspect foul play.

Nothing is supposed to be apparent until proven.

One dirty thing in politics is the use of rumors to destroy one's reputation.
Anwar was rumored to be a gay.
Mahathir was rumored to be corrupt.
The polls were rumored to be unfair.

Plenty of things are rumored, but please, keep a cool head and look for evidence. It is already damn hard to look  at something subjectively with suspicion in one's mind.

Saturday, May 4, 2013

Ubah the people

It is appalling to know that the people around me take "kopi lui" as a "tradition". People complain of corruption but yet they take it as a norm.

There was once when I asked my friend what would he do if he was caught speeding by a traffic police. He replied that he would just stuff money. Then I asked him what he would do if the police refused. He jokingly replied he would add the amount instead. While this is an individual case, ask yourself, what would you do, if you were caught speeding by the police?

Malaysia is a democratic country. We choose our leaders. We are the determining factor whether that guy contesting is going to get into the parliament. However, no matter if we change the government or not, corruption still will exist, as we accept it as a norm. When AES was introduced that could curb corruption as the fines are given by a computer system instead of the human factor, people complain. When there was a case where the police reported a case of under table money after refusing it, people complain.

How can a civil servant do their job when what they do isn't support by the popular masses? The MACC(Malaysian anti corruption commission)  is fighting an uphill battle especially without the support and cooperation of the people. It's easy to speculate about how the politicians are corrupt, but the MACC cannot simply execute based on popular opinions. They need facts, and those facts have to be backed up by evidence. SImply advertising how some politician is corrupt is not enough to serve legal justice.

It's even harder to monitor daily corruption, considering that the people take this as a norm. If the police actually refused the bribe, would you praise him for his integrity, or curse his entire generation into hell for letting them punish you for your own mistake?

You are responsible for your own actions, not the government. The government has no right to interfere with your choice, but they could only so much as to punish the perpetrator of crime or try to advise the masses to comply. If you don't want to take responsibility for your actions, why do you expect the government to be superhumans who could?

Ubah. Ubah our mindset before we should even blame others. We are our own man. The government should be the embodiment of the people, not the other way around.

Pillar of strength

Once again, my tone is that of one who dislikes both sides.

The temporary incident that had led DAP into a momentary hiatus has shown how PR would operate in the case where DAP has lost power.

DAP would contest under the PAS flag and the PKR in Peninsular and West Malaysia respectively.

Has one ever wondered why DAP and PKR have to team up the time bomb, PAS in their coalition?

This is a matter of political reality, as both DAP and PKR lack one thing that both BN and PAS have in their possession, and that is a stable "pillar state", where their power are mostly permanently stable.

PAS knows this.

BN knows this.

Being a new party who has stepped up to rival BN in power under the leadership of Anwar Ibrahim, PKR lacks the administration background and reputation, while DAP is a nearly chinese dominated party, which lacks the social and racial cohesion of the PKR. Their coalition manage to cover some of their holes, but they still lack stability.

And that's where PAS comes in. Having "pillar states", PAS has welded itself into the Malaysian background with its insistence for hudud laws and an Islamic government.

In the PR coalition, PAS holds the true power, however, it severely lacks support from chinese and indian factions due to it's hardcore nature. The coalition of the three parties seems like a perfect team.

The real problem is knowing that PAS holds the true power in the coalition. While they advocate the "PAS for all" propaganda, their leaders are known for making statements that they will never back down from their stand to implement hudud.

What the DAP and PKR needs is their own pillar states so that they do not require back up from PAS, but before that, it seems that they will have to contend with giving PAS more power as it goes into the GE13 as the people will be voting for their party of choice tomorrow. Once PAS has cemented itself into the power seat, it would not give a damn to the other parties as it could have easily run the country Indonesia-style.

That is the real problem for PR. Without an equal standing, the strongest party will dominate the entire coalition.

It's just like how UMNO teamed up with MCA and MIC during the early days of independence. And look at them now. Enough said.

Then, PAS was still inside BN. However, as time went and UMNO going from extreme to central, PAS remained hardcore and was booted out. However, it's like a deja vu as PAS forms it's own coalition rivalling BN now.

Once again, I stress that DAP and PKR have to have their own stable "pillar states" if they are to stand equal to PAS in PR, even if I don't really give a damn to PKR.

Seriously? That track record and you'll going with it?




This is a link to a advertisment criticising the economy led under the Malaysian BN government. It maybe a little late to post this since the GE13 is tomorrow, but some things have to pointed out for future reference.

I should take note that I'm no supporter of any of the both political groups. The advertisements from BN incite enough emotions but the real problem is that people get emotional and fail to see that they are also being misled from the other side.

Note: there might be some discrepancies in the post below and the advertisement. Read the wikipedia article and watch the video first.


In this video, there is a comparison of the Malaysian economy from Anwar's time as the finance minister and Najib's time. I would like to point out that that was Dr Mahathir's time as Prime Minister and his various programs has led the country to move towards industrialization and modernization and thus our economy was booming. However, the 1997 financial crisis led to a serious rethinking of Anwar Ibrahim's ability to lead the economy of the country.

The financial crisis threatened to devastate Malaysia. The value of the ringgit plummeted due to currency speculation, foreign investment fled, and the main stock exchange index fell by over 75 per cent. At the urging of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the government cut government spending and raised interest rates, which only served to exacerbate the economic situation. In 1998, Mahathir reversed this policy course in defiance of the IMF and his own deputy, Anwar. He increased government spending and fixed the ringgit to the US dollar. The result confounded his international critics and the IMF. Malaysia recovered from the crisis faster than its Southeast Asian neighbours. In the domestic sphere, it was a political triumph. Amidst the economic events of 1998, Mahathir had sacked Anwar as Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister, and he could now claim to have rescued the economy in spite of Anwar's policies.[63]

During the 1997 crisis, Thailand was attacked before Indonesia. Both the Baht and Rupiah slumped and both countries opted to adopt the IMF reforms and economy packages. In the end, both countries had to repay debts and the countries fell into deep recession as it struggles to repay the debts to the IMF.

After Thailand and Indonesia, Malaysia was hit next. Anwar opted to follow the economy reforms of the IMF and use their bailout packages. As history and the quote from wikipedia above has shown, such a measure only increased the seriousness of the situation.

The year 1997 saw drastic changes in Malaysia. There was speculative short-selling of the Malaysian currency, the ringgitForeign direct investment fell at an alarming rate and, as capital flowed out of the country, the value of the ringgit dropped from MYR 2.50 per USD to, at one point, MYR 4.80 per USD.


What Mahathir did next literally saved the rest of South East Asia from the speculators who attacked Thailand's, Indonesia's and Malaysia's currency.

Instead of continuing using the advice from IMF, Mahathir ripped down the reforms and instead initiated a economy lockdown to secure the Malaysian economy. Foreign Malaysian money was freezed and government spending was increased. Amazingly this measure managed to stop the economy slump and Malaysia's economy bounced back faster than most of the other countries, surprising the IMF and other western countries. However, by 2008, the global credit crunch hit again and even though the Malaysian economy managed to remain relatively stable, the current economy has not been able return the pre-1997 highs.

The lockdown measure proved successful. Speculators could not attack the currencies of other ASEAN countries as they would lose money once the country locked down after they attacked. Their method of “selling short” depended on foreign money being available.


Now, imagine if Mahathir had opted to follow the advice of Anwar and Anwar's American aides to give in to the IMF and follow behind Thailand and Indonesia, imagine our current situation.


The video has compared our economy to that of Vietnam. Note that Vietnam was not attacked directly during the 1997 crisis. Not even Singapore was attacked directly. Not only that, they have compared the economy during Anwar's time and now, when Anwar was sacked before he could do real damage to the economy due to his short-sightedness.


And yet, none of the younger generation remembers this part of history when our country triumphed against western powers who threatened to hold us as slaves to debt of the IMF.

With this track record, I simply cannot bring myself to like him, or trust his leadership, even though I dislike the other side too. I have heard my friends saying that my various reasons for hating both sides simply show that I will not care to vote. I agree with that statement.

Between the devil and the sea, as they always say.